FHA Interest Rate Predictions – Week of April 12, 2010

Filed under Weekly Review by on April 12, 2010 at 7:47 am {no comments}

The Fed wrapped up its $1.25T mortgage bond purchase program at the end of March and had an absolutely miserable week to end March.

Last week, the trend reversed and mortgage bonds made up two-thirds of the prior week’s losses.  Both conventional and FHA interest rates clawed back in a rather surprising rate rally.

There wasn’t much economic data, but Greece stepped in and filled the news.  If you haven’t been following this story, it’s worth it.  The Greek Parliament makes the US Congress seem not as childish.

Faced with a mountain of debt and a series of awful policy decisions, Greece has been spending much of their time complaining about how the rest of the EU is nagging them.

Yeah, that will happen when you lie about your budget and sell your sovereign debt throughout the .  The uncertainty overseas brought investor money into the US pushing the FHA lower in spite of a flood of reports that revealed a US economy that continues to get stronger.

FHA – This Week

Loaded domestic calendar + continued Greek mess = .

Wednesday to Friday includes , Retail Sales, and Housing Starts.

Continued economic strength should mean higher rates.   Resolution in Greece should mean higher rates.

If both occur at the same time, watch out.  Rates have a lot of room to jump higher and not much room to move lower.

This week, locking in before Wednesday may be your safest, near-term rate locking strategy.

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FHA Mortgage Rate Predictions | This Week | March 8, 2010

Filed under Weekly Review by on March 8, 2010 at 7:46 am {no comments}

The FHA interest rate improved again last week.

Light volume and steady gains all week.  Then the better-than-expected jobs report on Friday took back much of the week’s gains.

Rates were best Thursday afternoon, but it was still the second consecutive week in which the FHA interest rate fell.

FHA Loan Rate Predictions For This Week

More .

There are not many economic reports with just and Retail Sales due out.  A status quo for rates would be great.  Any change is significantly more likely to drive rates up than push them down.

The ticking clocks for this week are two-fold and completely outside of normal mortgage rate factors:

  • The end of the Fed’s support of the mortgage bond market
  • Potential resolution on the EU / Greece bailout discussions

We’ve had almost all of $1.25T supporting for the past year.  That’s ending.  The Fed has been a buyer of epic proportion.  Rates will go up if no one else has an appetite for that many mortgage bond investments.

We’ve had a huge influx of foreign money in the past few weeks.  It’s helped push the lower and stocks higher in the same week.  That’s not normal.  That’s because felt the US was safer than anywhere else.  If the Greece issue finds resolution, expect rates to jump.

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