New Home Sales Crater In January, Opening The Door For Deals With Builders

New Home Sales (Jan 2010 - Jan 2011)

Not all housing reports are sunny, it seems.

In its monthly release, the U.S. showed a 13 percent drop-off in annualized new construction sales between the months of December and January.

It’s the biggest one-month drop in New since May 2010.

In addition, the supply of new homes for sale spiked higher to 7.9 months last month.  ”Home supply” is defined as the amount of time it would take to sell the complete “for sale” inventory at the current pace of sales.

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Existing Home Supply Down 40% In Last 6 Months

Existing Home Supply (Jan 2010 - Jan 2011)Home resales rose another 2.7 percent last month, according to the National Association of REALTORS® monthly report.

An “existing home” is a home that’s been previously occupied and is not considered new construction.

The number of existing homes sold on a rolling 12-month basis is now at its highest point since May 2010, the month before the federal homebuyer tax credit ended. It’s also up some 40% since July 2010, the month after the tax credit ended.

But that’s not the biggest story in the Existing report. The precipitous decline in home inventory deserves more attention.

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Home Resales Boom Into The End Of The Tax Credit; Home Values Seen Rising.

Existing rose in March, as expected. U.S. home buyers closed on 7 percent more homes as compared to February.

Furthermore, versus March 2009 — a month many people equate to the low point of the U.S. economy — sales volume was up 16 percent.

“Existing home sale” is the technical term for a home resale; a home previously inhabited by a person.  It’s the opposite of a “new home sale” which is a sale of a newly-constructed home.

Existing Homes Data is tracked by the National Association of Realtors® and a closer look at the March data reveals some other interesting notes:

  1. Year-over-year sales are higher for the 9th straight month
  2. Real estate investors represented 19 percent of all homes purchased
  3. First-time home buyers account for 44 percent of all buyers

Also worth noting is that the supply of available homes is down on a broader basis.  At the current rate of sales, the existing home inventory will be exhausted in 8 months.

Despite banks releasing foreclosures and into the Chicago market, that’s still one half-month less from February.

When supplies drops, home prices tend to rise. It suggests an underlying strength in housing that should support home prices through the next few months — especially as the tax credit finishes working its way through the system.

That said, real estate markets are local. You shouldn’t assume that what’s happening on the national level is also happening here at home.  Be sure to check with your real estate agent about local market conditions before making a decision to buy or sell.

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Home Supply Indicates A Few Extra “Good Deals”

dropped last month by 11% and hit the lowest levels in the 47 years that the index has been tracked.

This is great news for current home shoppers.  The was rallying all year, pushing the home supply down to 7 months by last October.  Supply was down, demand was up, and the best deals on homes were all turning into multiple offer situations in many markets.

We’re seeing continued general strength in the housing market, but last month’s data revealed a brief pause.  Additional supply should lead to better negotiating power for buyers and more favorable terms on items like closing costs concessions and free upgrades from builders.

The reasons for the spike in supply are varied:

  • The original tax credit expired in November
  • Weather conditions were awful in most of the country in January
  • Weak employment and consumer confidence continue to hinder big ticket sales

The is all a matter of timing.  This data is over a month old now.  Market conditions in the street today determine the price you’ll get today. Still, this is great timing for people making offers in the very short term.  Next month’s report will likely look a little better.

With the tax credit expiring, FHA interest rates rallying, and a generally improving housing market, it looks like a great time to buy.

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