FHA Interest Rate Predictions: Watch Inflation

Homes are significantly more affordable today because of these low .  We’ve been hovering around 5% for quite some time.

When is the ?  If housing prices were to jump a whopping 5% in just a few months, it wouldn’t be as expensive as getting a 6% rate instead of a 5% rate.

Example:  If a home jumped from $100,000 to $105,000, the payment would go up somewhere around $25-30.  If the home priced stayed steady at $100,000, but rates jumped from 5% to 6%, the increase in payment would be more than double at just over $60 extra dollars per month.

The , not prices, have been driving this affordability.

So, when’s it going to end?

Watch .   are highly responsive to .

By definition, is when a currency loses its value; when what used to cost $2.00 now costs $2.15. As consumers, we perceive as goods becoming more expensive.  However, it’s not that goods are more expensive, per se. It’s that the dollars used to buy them are worth less.

This is a big deal to because mortgage bonds are denominated, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars.  As the dollar loses value to , therefore, so does the value of every mortgage bond in existence. When bonds lose their value, investors don’t want them and bond prices fall.  move opposite of bond prices.

Prices down, rates up.

In today’s market, the relationship between and is helping home buyers. The Cost of Living made its smallest annual gain in 6 years last month and the Fed has repeatedly said that will stay low for some time. The combination is driving investors to buy mortgage bonds which, in turn, is suppresses rates.

So long as it lasts, the cost of homeownership will remain relatively low. Combined with the expiring , these FHA interest rates have never been lower.

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FHA Interest Rates Rally Back

Just a quick mid-day update: Since opening significantly lower after the jobs report, mortgage bonds have rallied. The have recovered all of the losses from opening bell and are now up 18 basis points.

We are now overbought according to every technical signal so the market could move quickly if it reverses.

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