FHA Interest Rate Predictions – Week of April 12, 2010

The Fed wrapped up its $1.25T mortgage bond purchase program at the end of March and had an absolutely miserable week to end March.

Last week, the trend reversed and mortgage bonds made up two-thirds of the prior week’s losses.  Both conventional and FHA interest rates clawed back in a rather surprising rate rally.

There wasn’t much economic data, but Greece stepped in and filled the news.  If you haven’t been following this story, it’s worth it.  The Greek Parliament makes the US Congress seem not as childish.

Faced with a mountain of debt and a series of awful policy decisions, Greece has been spending much of their time complaining about how the rest of the EU is nagging them.

Yeah, that will happen when you lie about your budget and sell your sovereign debt throughout the .  The uncertainty overseas brought investor money into the US pushing the FHA lower in spite of a flood of reports that revealed a US economy that continues to get stronger.

FHA – This Week

Loaded domestic calendar + continued Greek mess = .

Wednesday to Friday includes , Retail Sales, and Housing Starts.

Continued economic strength should mean higher rates.   Resolution in Greece should mean higher rates.

If both occur at the same time, watch out.  Rates have a lot of room to jump higher and not much room to move lower.

This week, locking in before Wednesday may be your safest, near-term rate locking strategy.

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