FHA Interest Rate Predictions – Feb. 16, 2010 Edition

FHA interest rates ticked higher last week, although they didn’t jump as much as they could have.   It was the first time in five weeks that rates ticked higher.

Mortgage bonds had rallied so much in the past few weeks that some natural profit-taking was to blame and the Greece issue appears to have some potential rescue efforts in the works.

This week’s FHA mortgage rate predictions are back to basics:  domestic news.   The calendar is loaded starting on Wednesday.

We’ll see:

1. Housing Starts and Building Permits (Wednesday)
2. The release of the last month’s FOMC Minutes (Wednesday)
3. Business and consumer inflation figures (Thursday and Friday)

Housing starts could be soft as weather was brutal across the country last month.  Keep an eye on permits.  Weather delays a start, but builder optimism is what triggers the permit.

The FOMC Minutes are significantly more involved than the simple press release after the meeting.  Wall Street acts on what it thinks that the Fed is thinking.  That guessing game resumes when the minutes hit later this week.

Inflation could move FHA loan rates on Thursday and Friday.  Bonds hate inflation and a hotter-than-expected reading could cause interest rates to jump.

If you know you are likely to need to lock an FHA mortgage this week, the odds favor locking before the landslide of data hits.  Rates have a little room to go lower and a lot of room to go higher.